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基于政策计算的乡村振兴效应研究

Research on the effect of rural revitalization based on policy calculation

摘要:[目的/意义]探究不同政策工具对乡村振兴的影响方向和影响程度,有利于政策创新,对推动乡村振兴战略具有重要意义;[方法/过程]基于我国2006至2020年时序数据,采用熵权法对乡村振兴实施效果进行赋值,构建乡村振兴评价指标体系并利用向量自回归模型实证揭示不同类型政策工具对乡村振兴的影响方向和贡献程度;[结果/结论]结果表明,供给型、环境型、需求型这三类政策工具对乡村振兴指数起着正向影响作用,但供给型政策工具在前期对乡村振兴指数存在负向影响作用;同时不同类型的政策工具对乡村振兴的影响存在差异性,需求型政策工具对乡村振兴的影响最大。因此,为提高乡村振兴实施效果,在改善政策工具体系的同时,应注重各类政策工具的灵活运用,以形成最大合力。

英文摘要:Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] Rural revitalization is an important strategy to solve the three rural issues. This paper divides the policy instruments involved in rural revitalization into supply, demand and environment, and discusses the impact of different policy instruments on rural revitalization through empirical research. [Methods / processes] Based on Chinese time series data from 2006 to 2020, rural revitalization evaluation index system is constructed, rural revitalization effects are allocated by entropy weight method, and different kinds of policies are empirically analyzed by the vector autoregression model. The level of impact and contribution of tools to rural revitalization; [Result/Conclusion] The results show that the impact of policy instruments on rural revitalization has gradually increased with the number of phases, from 44.96% in the initial phase to 50.57% in the second phase. After that, they remained around 44%; the contribution rate of environmental policy tools reached a maximum of 12.32% in the sixth period, the contribution rate of supply-type policy tools reached a maximum of 15.29% in the second period, and the demand-based policy tools reached the maximum in the early stage. Value ratio 34.51%. Therefore, to improve the implementation effect of rural revitalization, while improving the system of policy tools, we should pay attention to flexible use of various policy tools to form the greatest synergy.

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[V1] 2022-06-14 16:08:35 chinaXiv:202206.00146V1 下载全文
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