Citation Prediction and Influencing Factors Analysis on Academic Papers

Subjects: Library Science，Information Science >> Library Science submitted time 2023-08-27 Cooperative journals: 《图书情报工作》

Geng Qian Jing Ran Jin Jian Luo Qingyang

Abstract： [Purpose/significance] In this study, the prediction about future citation of a paper is analyzed by a set of features, which intends to evaluate the academic influence of a scholar, a paper and/or a publication. [Method/process] In this study, publications, authors and papers are investigated to discuss potential factors for citation prediction and SCI indexed papers in the field of Library Information are utilized as a concrete example to evaluate the validity of these factors. Several algorithms, such as logistic regression, GBDT, XGBoost, AdaBoost and Random Forest, are benchmarked on different evaluation metrics and the algorithm of GBDT is applied to identify influential factors. [Result/conclusion] Three aspects of influential factors for citation prediction are analyzed and different approaches are evaluated, which aims to predict citations of papers in the near future. Categories of experiments are conducted and it is found that GBDT, XGBoost and Random Forest perform the best. Also, the performance of citation prediction tends to be better on papers with a relative longer publication time.

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